Like most of you, I was distressed and disappointed to hear that Sen. Obama would support the "compromise" FISA bill, especially given his past opposition to the egregious "Protect America Act" and his disapproval of retroactive telecom immunity.

Then, as always, he came through and demonstrated his value as a leader.

Read below the fold...

It's been a while since my last House diary, and I just know you've been sitting there wondering "when will Nathaniel publish his next House roundup diary? I can't live without my fix, and he's just so...incisive...and brilliant...and downright Lincolnesque." (h/t to Stephen Colbert for that.)

Well, pine no more! As always, seats are ranked by flippability, but since House races are so numerous (at 435), I eventually switch to alphabetical order after the first 18 races. I figured 18 was a convenient number...and I also got lazy after writing about Alaska At Large.

Read below the fold, if you dare...

I can excitedly report that I am working on a massive House roundup to be published next week, but in the mean time, everybody's watching this historic presidential race. As a volunteer on the Obama campaign since before it began in February 2007, I have trouble remaining objective, but as always, honest analysis is more important to campaign loyalty...besides, things are looking bright enough that there is no need for spin or distortions to see this map as Obama's to lose.

Read below the fold, as I rank states by likelihood of flipping from their 2004 results...

Given the hoopla over the R&B's Florida/Michigan decision this weekend, I've been thinking about ways to improve this byzantine and at times arbitrary primary system for 2012. Of course, the candidates knew what they were getting into this cycle, so I don't accept any ex post facto complaining, but since we hope to have an uncontested primary in 2012, it seems like as good a time as any for reform.

Let me start by saying this: I like proportional allocation. No, it doesn't work like the ever-loathed Electoral College, but it's...well, democratic. Republicans like to choose their nominee by making states like California, Florida, and New York winner-take-all, but as Democrats we like underdogs a bit more than that.

Let me also say that I like the early four states used this cycle. Maybe we should try to rotate these early four every cycle, but I think we should always aim for a similar regional, ethnic, and ideological balance: one labor-heavy Midwestern state, one Western state with a marked rural/urban split, one independent-minded Northeastern state, one heavily African-American Deep Southern state.

I don't pretend to have the answers. But I think I've got a decent proposal, on which I'd like to hear input. It is far from perfect, but it is a start. Read below the fold...

It's been five LOOOONG months since I last posted a Senate '08 diary. Back then, Fidel Castro still ran Cuba (in name, at least) and Iowa was anyone's game to predict. Two weeks before my diary was posted, a loon held Clinton's Rochester, New Hampshire office hostage for several hours. And about the time my diary was posted, the hottest news on Campaign Trail '08 was Sex On the City (if you don't remember, it's okay...it was Rudy Giuliani's 497th scandal of 2007).

Anyway, much has changed, and the Senate '08 picture has seemingly gotten brighter and brighter for the Democrats. Retaining a Senate majority seems just about assured, and expanding it significantly looks likely. That's what a basket-case economy and unanimously disdained President will do for the opposition party. Good times.

My Senate roundup below the fold! . . .

I've been reluctant to prematurely declare the end of Hillary Clinton's campaign, particularly after experiencing unexpected electoral heartbreak (that's a clinical term) in New Hampshire. But after the county conventions in Iowa, Barack Obama now enjoys a lead of 126 delegates. (Without superdelegates it's 163.) It may not sound like as much as it is...but I'll put it this way: Clinton would need big landslides in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida (assuming those two have do-overs), plus at least one unexpected win like Indiana or North Carolina to even come close to erasing that deficit. She would also need to expand her shrinking (currently 37) lead among superdelegates.

This is common knowledge these days. But read below the fold to see just how dire the prospects are for Clinton...and please remember: this is not a candidate diary, though I do support Obama. It's a math lesson.

Two well-funded and brilliant Democratic politicians duking it out in a wildly competitive nomination battle. One is a talented upstart Senator in his late 40s with an enthused younger base, the other an older, accomplished pol with experience both in the Senate and the White House. The latter started out as inevitable before several stinging losses, yet survived a string of defeats to come back and fight to a tie or near-tie. Primary after primary left the race inconclusive. As soon as one person got an advantage, the other pushed back. The young upstart was bogged down by mostly untrue gossip, while the older, more experienced candidate had trouble handling the surge of new voters. The pledged delegate count was so close that the media speculated the nomination could be decided undemocratically by those elusive superdelegates. Meanwhile, an aging GOP nominee was chosen relatively early.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? No, Walter Mondale and Gary Hart, 24 years ago.

Sure, you've seen the comparisons before. But this is just plain freaky. Read below the fold...

Emerging from that gargantuan...thing...yesterday, both Clinton and Obama supporters have much to crow about. For Clinton, she won decisively in California and will probably win quite a few more delegates (though the rest of February favors Obama, so that may not last through March 4). Her strategy of focusing on racking up margins in the big prizes (especially California, Arizona, New Jersey, and New York) definitely worked. For Obama, he won at least 13 (possibly 14 as New Mexico has not yet been declared) of the 22 states, in all regions of the country, and pulled off a couple key upsets. Clearly his strategy of monopolizing the small caucus states also succeeded, leading to massive victories in the Mountain states and Midwest. He also made clear inroads with women and (outside of California, where absentee votes were a huge chunk) Latinos.

So everybody has bragging rights. But as both sides play the expectations game, who actually came out disappointed? Read my predictions (from Sunday Feb 3) below the fold...

Well, it is over two hours until the clock strikes midnight over on the East Coast. As 2008 approaches, we all await one of the most fluid, perhaps bizarre, elections in United States history. More importantly, we await the birth of Jamie Lynn's beloved Baby Spears and the spawning of a whole new generation of media train wrecks. Take heart: whatever hits the rest of us during future decades, we can be sure the tabloid industry will survive.

But alas, this thread is not about dysfunctional right-wing loonies. At least, not entirely.

Read my predictions for 2008 below the fold...

Well, any political junkie worth his/her salt is currently preoccupied with electing the next POTUS, but as I've stated many times, I'm primarily a congressional nerd. This is my final Senate rundown of the year, so here are things as they stand today, on the brink of the busiest winter politics has ever seen.

Seats are ranked by likelihood of flipping parties. Read below the fold...

I have not been coy about the fact that I support Obama in the primaries, but have been, I hope, quite careful to avoid writing candidate-bashing diaries or otherwise enlisting in the primary wars. Analysis, debate, and discussion is of more use in this forum than spin. So as a geeky Democrat first, and an Obama supporter second, I want to get a real handle on what's going on in this election.

The short story: Who the heck knows?

The long story below the fold...

The polls have closed in the VA-01 special election and are about to close in OH-05. As always, use this thread for your predictions and for incoming results.

My predictions:

Virginia 01 - State Del. Rob Wittman (R) will win easily. DCCC attention went to OH-05 (a.k.a. Hackett the Sequel), and early results have Wittman around 65% to Phil Forgit's 34%. It will get closer than that, but hardly a barn-burner.

Ohio 05 - State Rep. Bob Latta (R) will win, but by a tight margin in this should-be-solid 61% Bush district. Sound a lot like Schmidt/Hackett? It should. Robin Weirauch (D), a repeat from 2006, will do surprisingly well, 45-47%, but the district is just too Republican. I hope to be wrong. In any case, the Dems will spin this as a pyrrhic victory.

Your thoughts? Gossip? Predictions? Numbers?

Here it is, after many months of absence, my House rankings (offense only this time). I know you've been holding your breath, so please forgive me for turning your face purple with anticipation.

Because of the many GOP open seats, vulnerable incumbents have gotten less coverage 'round these parts. But you can still spot some of them, especially as the list unfolds.

Let us start the bidding with:

1. California 4th - John Doolittle (R) supposedly running for 10th term

PVI: R+11
Outlook: Likely Democratic pickup

As long as the corrupt Doolittle is in the race, Democrat Charlie Brown is way up. At least, that's what the last poll said. But I think we learned in 2006 that corrupt Republicans like to bow out at the last minute. I expect Doolittle will do the same eventually.

Much much more below the fold...

It's been quite a long time since I've done one of these. Obviously, I was waiting for the '07 elections to be done before I did the next diary about '08 gov races. I planned it this way! Yeah, that's it.

These gov races have been predictably slow to develop thanks to the battle for the White House, and don't yet have the level of excitement that seems to hit Senate races weekly.

1. Missouri - Matt Blunt (R) running for reelection

Rating: Tossup

Blunt's approval has inched out of dead-politician-walking territory and is now around 45-50%. Still, he is neck-and-neck with the presumptive Democratic nominee, State Atty. Gen. Jay Nixon. Missouri Gov races are always interesting because of the presidential-year dynamic, and the Show Me State seems to have moved past its 2002-2004 red state phase. It is now right back where it has been for a century: bellwether for the nation. Remember that oft-cited fact that Missouri picked the winner in every presidential election from 1904-2004, except 1956. A September series of SUSA matchups showed the Dem prez contenders carrying Missouri in almost every matchup, and that does not bode well for Blunt if the race remains tight.

The other races below the fold...

For an odd-numbered election, this is a busy night, as many of you know. In accord with tradition, here's my de rigueur predictions & results thread. Post any thoughts you have on the elections, along with any gossip. Here are my predictions:

KENTUCKY

Governor - Fletcher in a major upset! Just kidding. Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) is down anywhere from 15 to 25 points, and while those gay-baiting robocalls about Steve Beshear (D) may get a few nuts out to the polls, there is nothing that can save this pathetic governorship. My prediction: Beshear 58-42.

Secretary of State - What was an easy win for incumbent Trey Grayson (R) has become a close race with Bruce Hendrickson (D) thanks to Fletcher's albatross status. I still think Grayson pulls it out, but not by as much as he was supposed to. Grayson 53-47.

A lot more below the fold...

Ah yes, another rundown of the epically fast-changing 2008 Senate races. By the time I post this, someone else surely will have retired. Or maybe Bob Kerrey will have finally made up his mind. But in any case, here goes:

1. Virginia - OPEN

Last ranking: 2
Outlook: Likely Dem

This is becoming Obama '04ish in its ease. Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) is around 60% in every poll, while Rep. Tom Davis (R) is now backing out of a Senate race he's been prepping for for years, and former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) is looking like the GOP standard-bearer sacrificial lamb.

2. New Hampshire - John Sununu (R) running for 2nd term

Last ranking: 1
Outlook: Lean Dem

Last poll had former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) up 54-38. I could see Sununu narrowing the gap, but how much improvement can he hope for when she's already over 50%?

Read other races below the fold...

Today was the jungle primary for the Louisiana governor's race, and the burning question is whether Republican Rep. Bobby Jindal will win this one outright with 50%+, or or will be forced into a November 6 runoff against the runner-up (likely one of two Democrats, State Sen. Walter Boasso or State PSC Commissioner Foster Campbell).

Unfortunately Jindal has been favored all along, ever since former Democratic Sen. John Breaux removed himself from consideration last spring. He has been polling in the high 40s, dangerously close to the 50% mark, so the Dems' turnout operation will be concentrated on keeping him under that magic number. But even in a November 6 runoff analysts overwhelmingly expect Jindal to become the Bayou's next Governor. Big picture, though: a loss here is very likely to be canceled out by a pickup in Kentucky.

Anyway, what do you think? Take the poll and ANYBODY, feel free to comment with your thoughts, predictions, concerns (but not "concerns"), gossip, and incoming results. Louisianians, what's the word on the street tonight?

EDIT: It's been called: Jindal's got it with over 50%. Luckily, Mitch Landrieu stayed on top for Lt. Gov. That'll be fun. Anyone checking the state legislative races?

What was quite a logjam, an incredibly dull period in news on congressional races, has become a flood. Every week some long-time GOPer announces his or her retirement and a top-tier Dem jumps in, increasing prospects for enlarged majorities in both houses. The news is getting so overwhelming that House races now have to be split three ways: open seats, vulnerable GOP incumbents, vulnerable Dem incumbents. So from now, my sporadic rundowns will be split that way. I think.

Now be forewarned: this is a quickie, and so will not be as fleshed-out as my diaries back in the Good Old Days. But I'm trying to rapidly go through all the open seats, and it's getting more daunting every time I check.

Anyway, keep reading...